Blog Post 3.6 "Polling in Nevada"

1. The universe is the people of Nevada.
2. 20.2% - 29.8%
3. Biden could be ahead of Sanders.
4. Earlier polls showed Biden in the lead with 19 percent support, Sanders with 18 percent, and their nearest competitor - Warren - 8 percentage points behind.
5. After the 2004 election, the state switched from holding primaries to caucuses and was pushed much earlier on the primary calendar as a part of an effort to make the primary system more inclusive of the Democratic Party's demographic make-up.
6. It is hard to talk to people because the state has a disproportionate amount of people who work odd hours, and a relatively transient population.
7. The Iowa caucuses are a well-established tradition dating back to the 1970s, but Nevada's caucuses are relatively low.
8. The state has a newly instituted four-day early voting period.
9. Nevada relies heavily on tourism and the casino industries so its population can wax and wane seasonally.
10. The need for pollsters to have staff conducting field work over a 24-hour period rather than in evenings like in other states, as well as the costs involved in keeping up-to-date phone records and developing new models, means polling in Nevada is substantially more expensive to produce than in other states.

Blog Post 3.5 "Civil Servants"

1. Vindman is a top Ukraine expert on the National Security Council.
2. Vindman said it was "improper for the president of the United States to demand a foreign government investigate a US citizen and political opponent."
3. Vindman was removed from his post, and his brother was reassigned.
4. WH is saying that they are shrinking the NSC staff.
5. Civil servants will be even more fearful to speak out or testify against the president if he acts inappropriately again.
6. He was the ambassador to the European Union.
7. Sondland testified that there was quid pro quo.
8. He was a major Trump donor.
9. George Kent and Laura Cooper are next on the hit list.

Blog Post 3.4 "IT'S PRIMARY SEASON"

1. Phase 1 is in February and Phase 2 is in March.
2. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina
3. The primaries can solidify a frontrunner's position, give an underdog a surge of attention, or drive poorly performing contenders out of the race, and they often effectively settle who the true top two or three candidates are.
4. There are 1344 delegates.
5. California, Texas, the South, New England, the West, and the Midwest and American Samoa.
6. 7 on March 10 and 4 on March 17.
7. California moved from an early June primary late in the process up to Super Tuesday.
8. The third phase is slow-going and will feature either a few small contests or one small- or medium-sized contest.
9. One argument in favor of letting Iowa and New Hampshire go first is that it lets lesser-known candidates make their case in a smaller, more manageable setting.
10. Democrats allot all delegates proportionally, with no winner-take-all contests permitted.